Prime Minister Mark Carney may have survived his government’s first major test, but anyone mistaking Monday night’s razor-thin budget vote for stability is ignoring the political earthquake rumbling under Ottawa’s feet. The Liberal minority may have averted an early election, but the coming weeks could very well define whether Carney emerges as a transformational leader or a caretaker presiding over a slow-motion collapse.

The numbers alone tell a story of risk: a projected C$78-billion deficit, the second largest in Canadian history, and C$140 billion in new spending over five years. Carney calls it a “generational investment.” His opponents call it a “credit-card budget.” Both are right, and that is the political paradox he must now navigate.

Carney’s economic pedigree, the only person ever to serve as central bank governor in both Canada and the UK, gives him credibility, but it also raises expectations. His promise is nothing less than rebuilding Canada’s productivity, competitiveness, and resilience in a world where American tariffs, global inflation, and geopolitical fragmentation are squeezing smaller economies. The budget lays out big bets: updating ports, doubling exports to non-US markets, cushioning Canadian firms from U.S. tariffs, and luring a staggering C$1 trillion in private investment over five years.

Carney needed outside votes to pass the budget, and he barely got them. The final tally, 170 to 168, was a reminder that his government governs on a knife’s edge. Green Party leader Elizabeth May provided the lifeline, but not without conditions: explicit guarantees on climate action. Her message was unmistakable Carney’s climate credibility hangs by a thread. If he wavers, she walks.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois voted no, hammering the government on affordability and accusing Carney of gambling with the nation’s finances. Pierre Poilievre’s “credit-card budget” attack landed not because it’s clever, but because it taps into real anxiety. Canadians feel squeezed. Every poll shows affordability as the defining issue of our time. If Carney cannot quickly demonstrate how this historic spending improves people’s daily lives, the Conservatives will weaponize the deficit against him all the way to the ballot box.

Complicating matters further is the internal turbulence within Conservative ranks. Two defections, one crossing the floor to the Liberals and another resigning altogether, have exposed fractures inside Poilievre’s caucus. While the Conservative leader insists he’s staying put, the defections raise doubt about whether his combative style is inspiring confidence or driving MPs away. That drama gave the Liberals temporary breathing room, but it also signals a volatile political landscape ahead.

And then there is the most controversial element of Carney’s plan: a 10% cut to the federal workforce. Public sector unions are already sharpening their knives. Service delays, slower processing times, and potential labour unrest could dominate headlines and overshadow the government’s broader agenda.

Carney won the first battle. But the war over climate credibility, affordability, public service cuts, and political stability is just beginning. He has staked his leadership on the belief that Canadians are ready for bold, long-term investments in a turbulent world.

Now he has to prove it.