By Anthony Joseph

Three weeks into this federal election campaign, the air is already thick with talk of polls, policy platforms, and political momentum. But while the usual focus rests on the leading contenders—namely the newly invigorated Liberals under Mark Carney and the assertive Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre—it is increasingly clear that Canada is witnessing a historic squeeze on smaller parties, the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades.

This election isn’t just shaping up to be a contest between two political ideologies.It’s rapidly becoming a referendum on the kind of leadership Canadians want standing across the table from Donald Trump, in the White House. And that singular, urgent focus is dramatically narrowing the political space for parties like the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.

The NDP’s dilemma: squeezed from all sides

For Jagmeet Singh and the New Democratic Party, the challenge is particularly acute. While Singh began the campaign with ambitions of becoming prime minister, it has since become clear—even to him—that the NDP’s best hope is in winning enough seats to hold the balance of power in a minority government. That is a far cry from the leadership aspirations that once animated his campaign.

What went wrong? In many ways, Singh is being crowded out by external forces beyond his control—and some internal missteps. On the one hand, progressive voters—motivated by deep concern over a possible Pierre Poilievre government and an eye toward global developments like this second Trump presidency—have begun to gravitate toward the Liberals. Under Mark Carney’s leadership, the Liberals have successfully positioned themselves as the only credible firewall against a sharp rightward turn in Canadian politics.

This puts Singh in an impossible bind. While the NDP’s record of influencing government policy on issues like pharmacare and dental care is admirable, those achievements don’t necessarily translate into strong personal support for Singh himself. Unlike Jack Layton, whose 2011 breakthrough came with a groundswell of personal popularity, Singh hasn’t managed to connect with voters at a national level in the same way. And the perception remains that he’s not the man Canadians would choose to challange Trump on trade or lead during an economic standoff.

Perhaps most tellingly, even on affordability—long the bread and butter of the NDP’s platform—Singh has been outmaneuvered. Pierre Poilievre has co-opted the issue, turning it into the central pillar of his campaign and successfully appealing to blue-collar workers who might once have leaned left. At the same time, the Conservatives have deployed U.S.-style identity politics, “wokeness” into a wedge issue that further alienates working-class men from progressive parties like the NDP and the Liberals.

The Bloc’s support eroding

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois faces its own existential dilemma. Yves-François Blanchet, who once commanded a loyal base of sovereignist voters, now finds that support eroding—not because his supporters have changed their ideology, but because they no longer believe they can afford to vote Bloc this time around.

Here too, the spectre of a Poilievre-led government looms large. For many traditional Bloc voters, the idea of a federal leader eager to push pipelines through Quebec or slash federal support for social programs is simply too much to bear. And while Blanchet has dabbled in anti-woke rhetoric to curry favour with certain segments of the population, the broader public has shown little appetite for that cultural battleground.

Instead, what we’re seeing is a pivot based not on belief, but on strategy. Many Quebecers are putting aside long-held political identities in favour of what they view as a duty to the greater good: stopping Poilievre. It’s not a vote of inspiration—it’s a vote of self-preservation. And Mark Carney, though not historically tied to Quebec nationalism, is benefiting from this wave of pragmatism.

A Two-Party Lockout?

What binds these two stories—the NDP’s faltering national push and the Bloc’s provincial retreat—is the stark reality of polarization. This election has coalesced around two dominant narratives, embodied by two main parties, and the effect is suffocating for everyone else.

For the first time in recent memory, Canadian politics feels truly binary. On one side, Poilievre’s Conservatives promise smaller government, greater personal freedom, and a return to traditional values. On the other, Carney’s Liberals present themselves as defenders of institutional stability, international alliances, and a moderate, socially progressive vision of Canada.

Caught in the middle, smaller parties are struggling to get their message out—or even be heard. The looming presence of Trump on the global stage has only intensified this polarization, creating an external threat so large that nuance, debate, and diversity of opinion are being swept aside. This is not a healthy development for Canadian democracy.

The debate could shift the ground—but only slightly

With the leaders’ debates on the horizon, there remains a sliver of opportunity for smaller parties to reassert themselves. Singh, in particular, could use the stage to highlight the NDP’s achievements in holding the Liberals accountable on social programs—reminding voters that progressive gains in this country often come from the push-and-pull of minority government.

Blanchet, for his part, will need to recast his pitch—not as one rooted solely in identity, but in advocacy. In a national conversation where Quebec’s needs often get steamrolled by federal priorities, the Bloc’s role as a loud, effective voice for Quebecers could resonate again if reframed with clarity and conviction.

But these are uphill battles.

The danger of disappearing voices

In many ways, the disappearance of these alternative voices from the mainstream political discourse represents a loss for Canada. Whether or not one agrees with the NDP’s economic platform or the Bloc’s vision of sovereignty, the very presence of such parties in Parliament has historically served to broaden debate, challenge orthodoxies, and bring new ideas into the public square.

What we risk in this moment of polarization is a thinning of democratic diversity. And once those voices are gone, it becomes harder to get them back.

Canadians may ultimately decide that this is an election about one overriding question: who should lead the country through the turbulence of this second Trump presidency. That’s understandable. But we must also remember that democracy is more than just a binary contest. It is a conversation—and every voice deserves a place in it.

Anthony Joseph is the publisher of The Caribbean Camera newspaper. He writes on politics, culture, and the intersection of race and democracy in Canada.

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