US soldier won $400K betting on Maduro’s kidnapping

A US Army soldier has been charged by federal prosecutors after allegedly using classified military information to place lucrative bets on a prediction market tied to a US operation involving Venezuela’s leadership. Authorities say the case represents a serious breach of national security and public trust.

The United States Department of Justice announced charges against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, accusing him of earning more than $400,000 dollars through wagers placed on the platform Polymarket. Prosecutors allege he bet repeatedly on geopolitical outcomes, including whether US forces would intervene in Venezuela and when President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power.

Officials say Van Dyke exploited sensitive information linked to military planning. James C Barnacle Jr of the Federal Bureau of Investigation said the accused had betrayed fellow service members by using classified knowledge for personal financial gain.

Van Dyke faces multiple charges including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud and unlawful financial transactions. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years for wire fraud and a decade for each of the other charges.

According to court documents, the soldier was stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina and created a Polymarket account in late December 2025. Prosecutors say he used a virtual private network to conceal his location while placing bets on developments related to Venezuela.

Within days, he allegedly wagered small sums on the presence of US forces in Venezuela and on the removal of Maduro from office. Those bets escalated quickly, with thousands of dollars placed on multiple scenarios involving military action and political change. Prosecutors claim he continued betting even as operations approached.

On January 3, 2026, US forces launched an operation against Venezuela that resulted in the detention of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The action, described in the indictment as Operation Absolute Resolve, also led to casualties among Venezuelan and Cuban nationals.

The indictment alleges Van Dyke had advance knowledge of the operation and traded on that information. Investigators say he later realised substantial profits and moved funds into cryptocurrency before attempting to erase his trading account.

The case has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets, online platforms that allow users to bet on real world events. Their expansion has coincided with the second term of President Donald Trump, whose administration has been linked to a more permissive regulatory environment for such platforms.

Figures connected to the administration, including Donald Trump Jr, have had advisory roles in parts of the industry. Regulatory shifts earlier in 2025 eased legal challenges facing platforms such as Kalshi, enabling political event betting to expand rapidly in the United States.

Critics warn that the rise of such markets increases the risk of insider trading and conflicts of interest, particularly if government officials gain access to sensitive information that could influence betting outcomes.

Van Dyke’s case is among the most high profile examples cited by prosecutors of alleged misuse of classified intelligence within the growing digital betting sector.

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